>Researchers predict global warming may intensify Mei-yu weather

研究人员预测全球变暖可能加剧梅雨天气

Mei-yu is an important wet weather phenomenon in the middle-lower Yangtze River valley region of China, generally lasting from June 15 to July 10 each year. It has a wide impact on agriculture, the economy, and people's lives.

梅雨是长江中下游地区的一种重要潮湿天气现象，一般持续时间为每年的6月15日至7月10日，对农业、经济和人们的生活有着广泛影响。

Chinese researchers predicted recently that rising global temperatures would cause more intense Mei-yu in the region.

近日，中国研究人员预测，全球变暖将加剧中国长江流域地区的梅雨天气。

The researchers from Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology investigated changes in the characteristics of Mei-yu under global warming and the potential reasons based on observation and reanalysis of data from between 1961 and 2022.

南京信息工程大学研究人员根据1961年至2022年的观测和再分析数据，研究了全球变暖下梅雨特征的变化及其潜在原因。

According to their recent research article published in the journal National Science Review, notable increasing long-term trends are detected in the number of days without rainfall, the intensity of rainfall events, and the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events in the Yangtze River valley region during the Mei-yu period over past decades.

据他们发布在《国家科学评论》的相关成果显示，在过去几十年中，长江流域地区梅雨期无降雨日数、降雨强度以及极端降雨事件的频率和强度都呈现出显著的长期增长趋势。

The researchers found that the number of days without rainfall, intensity of rainfall events, and frequency of extreme precipitation events will increase in the Yangtze River valley region during the Mei-yu period under the two degrees Celsius warming scenario.

研究人员发现，在全球变暖2℃的情景下，长江流域地区梅雨期无降雨日数、降雨事件强度和极端降水事件频率都将增加。

Overall, the intensity of rainfall events during the Mei-yu period has the most significant response to climate change in observations and projections.

总体而言，在观测和预测中，梅雨期降雨强度对气候变化的响应最为显著。

> Chinese economy to grow about 5.2% in 2023

中国银行研究院报告：预计全年GDP增速为5.2%左右

BOC Research Institute, the research unit of Bank of China, predicted that the Chinese economy will grow about 5.7 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter, to achieve yearly growth of around 5.2 percent this year, above the official annual growth target of 5 percent.

据中国银行研究院预计，今年四季度中国经济将同比增长5.7%左右，全年增长5.2%左右，超过官方预期的5%的全年增长目标。

Services consumption potential will continue to be unleashed, infrastructure investment is expected to accelerate, and high-tech and private manufacturing investment will also grow to enhance manufacturing investment, said the 2023 Q4 Economic and Financial Outlook released by the institute on Sunday.

中国银行研究院近日发布的《2023年四季度经济金融展望报告》指出，服务消费潜力将持续释放，基建投资有望提速，高技术制造业和民间制造业也有望支撑制造业投资平稳增长。

That means the endogenous growth momentum of the Chinese economy will gain more steam, it added.

报告补充说，这意味着中国经济内生增长动力将得到改善。

The report predicted that consumption would grow 10 percent and 7.8 percent on a yearly basis, respectively, in the fourth quarter and in 2023.

报告预计2023年四季度消费同比增长10%左右，全年增长7.8%左右。

However, weak external demand and remaining profitability pressure, in conjunction with the ongoing inventory destocking cycle, will somehow impact the willingness and capability of market entities to expand investment in manufacturing.

不过，报告也指出，外需承压、企业利润下滑叠加去库存周期尚未结束，这将在一定程度上制约制造业整体投资意愿和能力。

Besides, uncertainties remain in real estate market recovery, although recently released policies are expected to help stabilize real estate sales to some extent, the report said.

此外，尽管最近出台的政策有望在一定程度上助推房地产销售企稳，但房地产市场复苏仍存在不确定性。

The report also suggested China give full play to the enormous domestic market to keep expanding effective demand, stimulate the vitality of private capital, and promote industrial transformation and upgrades.

报告还建议，中国应发挥好国内超大规模市场作用，持续扩大有效需求，激发社会资本活力，推动产业转型升级。

Fiscal policies should become more proactive and effective, playing a bigger role in stabilizing growth while expanding demand, while also paying attention to preventing risks, the report said.

同时，财政政策需要持续加力提效，在稳增长、扩需求方面担当更重要的角色，同时注意防范风险。