Despite recent swings, the Chinese yuan is expected to remain largely stable with manageable depreciation pressure this year, thanks to sound economic fundamentals and export resilience, experts said on Thursday.
They made the remarks amid a strengthening US dollar following tightening by the US Federal Reserve that put pressure on the yuan, sending the central parity rate of the yuan against the dollar down 102 basis points to 6.4098 on Thursday, the weakest level since mid-November.
"The yuan is expected to maintain overall stability with moderate depreciation and come in at around 6.45 against the dollar at the end of the year," said Hu Yifan, regional chief investment officer and head of macroeconomics for Asia-Pacific with UBS Global Wealth Management, one of the world's largest wealth managers.
Hu said China's sound economic fundamentals and resilient export growth are expected to help offset pressure on the yuan brought by a strong dollar.
The Chinese economy may hit a nadir in the second quarter and rebound in the second half, when the COVID-19 resurgence is expected to be further brought under control and stronger fiscal support is likely to boost investment and consumption, she said.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said on Monday the central bank needs to move quickly to raise interest rates to around 3.5 percent this year with multiple half-point hikes and should not rule out rate increases of 75 basis points, Bloomberg reported. |